Preseason Rankings
Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#15
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.0#28
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 2.6% 0.5%
#1 Seed 7.8% 10.7% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 16.3% 42.8% 19.7%
Top 4 Seed 34.0% 42.8% 19.7%
Top 6 Seed 49.0% 42.8% 19.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.1% 83.1% 64.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.1% 81.5% 62.5%
Average Seed 5.4 4.9 6.4
.500 or above 91.4% 95.6% 84.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 82.8% 71.3%
Conference Champion 10.5% 13.1% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 1.3%
First Four3.3% 2.5% 4.5%
First Round74.7% 82.0% 62.9%
Second Round53.5% 60.3% 42.4%
Sweet Sixteen30.2% 36.1% 20.7%
Elite Eight15.6% 18.9% 10.2%
Final Four7.7% 9.6% 4.6%
Championship Game3.6% 4.7% 2.0%
National Champion1.9% 2.6% 0.7%

Next Game: Florida (Home) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.2 - 4.52.2 - 4.5
Quad 1b2.3 - 1.94.5 - 6.4
Quad 25.0 - 2.19.4 - 8.5
Quad 36.3 - 1.015.7 - 9.5
Quad 45.6 - 0.221.3 - 9.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 16   Florida W 77-76 62%    
  Nov 11, 2018 195   @ Tulane W 87-71 88%    
  Nov 19, 2018 162   Canisius W 86-72 94%    
  Nov 22, 2018 187   UAB W 84-69 92%    
  Nov 23, 2018 46   LSU W 82-78 64%    
  Nov 25, 2018 8   Villanova L 78-81 40%    
  Nov 28, 2018 27   Purdue W 78-76 66%    
  Dec 03, 2018 192   Troy W 86-70 95%    
  Dec 08, 2018 96   Connecticut W 81-72 78%    
  Dec 17, 2018 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 92-69 99%    
  Dec 19, 2018 213   North Florida W 97-80 96%    
  Dec 22, 2018 71   Saint Louis W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 01, 2019 194   Winthrop W 90-74 95%    
  Jan 05, 2019 2   @ Virginia L 63-68 26%    
  Jan 09, 2019 23   Miami (FL) W 77-76 63%    
  Jan 12, 2019 4   Duke L 81-85 45%    
  Jan 14, 2019 167   @ Pittsburgh W 80-66 83%    
  Jan 20, 2019 78   @ Boston College W 84-77 64%    
  Jan 22, 2019 18   Clemson W 75-74 62%    
  Jan 27, 2019 23   @ Miami (FL) W 77-76 43%    
  Feb 02, 2019 113   Georgia Tech W 78-67 87%    
  Feb 05, 2019 12   @ Syracuse L 70-71 36%    
  Feb 09, 2019 54   Louisville W 82-77 74%    
  Feb 13, 2019 115   Wake Forest W 85-74 87%    
  Feb 16, 2019 113   @ Georgia Tech W 78-67 73%    
  Feb 19, 2019 18   @ Clemson W 75-74 43%    
  Feb 23, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 82-86 29%    
  Feb 25, 2019 49   Notre Dame W 77-73 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 38   North Carolina St. W 86-83 70%    
  Mar 05, 2019 20   Virginia Tech W 81-80 62%    
  Mar 09, 2019 115   @ Wake Forest W 85-74 73%    
Projected Record 21.3 - 9.7 10.9 - 7.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.2 3.2 1.7 0.3 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 5.6 2.9 0.3 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.1 3.0 0.3 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.8 1.0 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.3 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 12th
13th 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.5 5.8 8.1 9.8 11.8 12.6 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.1 3.9 1.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 98.7% 1.7    1.4 0.3
16-2 82.5% 3.2    2.1 1.0 0.1
15-3 52.4% 3.2    1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 18.8% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 5.7 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.9% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.1% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.9% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 2.9 1.4 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.0% 99.7% 9.6% 90.1% 3.9 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 12.3% 99.0% 7.1% 91.9% 5.3 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-7 12.6% 94.1% 5.7% 88.3% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 93.7%
10-8 11.8% 85.4% 5.6% 79.8% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 84.5%
9-9 9.8% 64.4% 3.5% 60.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 63.2%
8-10 8.1% 34.9% 3.3% 31.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 32.7%
7-11 5.8% 13.7% 2.3% 11.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 11.6%
6-12 3.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.2%
5-13 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 76.1% 7.7% 68.4% 5.4 7.8 8.5 8.6 9.0 7.7 7.3 6.4 6.2 5.2 5.0 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 23.9 74.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 83.8 16.2